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Thoughts and Experiences from the Mile High City of Denver, Colorado

My predictions for Iowa Caucuses

Peter

Well tonight is the night and we get the first results of the race for the party nominating conventions. It is going to be interesting to see what happens and how Iowa votes. The big question is what is going to happen to Rudy Giuliani's campaign. He is not running in Iowa.

Another interesting thing is how the caucuses are run. For the Republicans it is a straw vote, everyone votes and they head home. For the Democrats, it is a little different. They take a straw vote at the beginning. If anyone candidate does not have 15% of the voters, than they are declared unviable. Those voters can then switch to another candidate or go home.

Well my predictions are:

For the Republicans the order will be Huckabee, Romney, and McCain in Iowa. This is going to hurt Romney because he has spent a ton of money in Iowa and it will propel McCain into a win in New Hampshire and possibly South Carolina. I think this momentum for McCain will have him in direct competition with Giuliani as they move into his strong states of New York, New Jersey, and Florida.

The Democrats will finish, Edwards, Obama, Clinton. This will hit Clinton hard. The reason that Edwards will win is how the Democrats run the caucuses. Those people who are voting for unviable candidates will move to Edwards and defeat Obama and Clinton. The question would be how is Clinton going to rebound in New Hampshire.

Let me know what you think?